JD Vance has reached his highest level of support so far in a hypothetical Republican primary, while Marco Rubio has significantly narrowed the gap among Latino voters.

Vice President JD Vance leads a potential 2028 Republican presidential primary with 41%, compared with 18% for Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll.

  • Why it matters: Vance is widening his national lead, but among Hispanic voters, the gap with Rubio falls from 23 points to just seven.

JD Vance 2028 Support Tops 40% for the First Time

The 41% figure represents JD Vance’s best result since The Center Square began measuring potential Republican contenders for the 2028 presidential election.

His support started at 38% in October 2025, fell to 36% in March, remained at 36% in June and has now climbed five points.

  • The trend: Vance went from 38% → 36% → 36% → 41% across the four polls conducted so far.

The vice president also maintains relatively consistent support among men and women, across different age groups and regions of the country.

His strongest numbers come among rural and Midwestern voters, both at 46%, and among supporters of President Donald Trump, at 45%.

He receives 41% among women and 40% among men. His weakest result by age comes among voters ages 18 to 29, at 37%.

  • The data: Vance also reaches 45% in the Northeast and 44% among voters with a college degree.

Rubio Doubles His Support and Narrows the Gap Among Hispanic Voters

Marco Rubio remains well behind Vance in the national results, but his growth since March shows an important shift in this early snapshot of the 2028 race.

The secretary of state had 9% support in March. He rose to 17% in June and reached 18% in August, making him the only contender besides Vance with double-digit support.

  • The gain: Rubio doubled his support between March and August while remaining the second-choice candidate in the poll.

The difference becomes much smaller when looking at Hispanic and Latino voters.

Vance receives 31% within that group, while Rubio reaches 24%. The vice president’s lead is therefore reduced to just seven points.

Rubio also posts one of his strongest results among voters age 65 and older, reaching 30%, although he still trails Vance.

  • Among Hispanics: Vance 31% vs. Rubio 24%, a considerably smaller gap than the 23-point margin recorded nationally.

The 2028 Republican Race Is Still Open

Noble Predictive Insights conducted the poll for The Center Square between August 12 and 16.

The survey included 930 registered Republicans and 269 right-leaning independents. The reported overall margin of error is ±2 percentage points.

Results for demographic subgroups, such as Hispanic voters, should be interpreted with greater caution because they are based on smaller samples.

  • The limitation: The poll measures a hypothetical primary with more than two years still remaining before the 2028 presidential election.

Vance currently appears to be the Republican frontrunner, but these numbers do not guarantee that he will become the nominee.

The question is whether Rubio can turn his stronger support among Latino voters into a broader challenge to the vice president’s national lead in the JD Vance 2028 race.

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SOURCE: The Center Square