A new poll gives Democrats a five-point national advantage and shows an even wider gap among Hispanic voters, young people and lower-income Americans.

Democrats lead Republicans 47% to 42% in congressional voting intention, according to the new Voters’ Voice Poll from The Center Square.

  • Why it matters: 59% of Hispanic respondents said they would choose a Democratic candidate, a result that could raise concerns among Republicans ahead of November.

Independents Are Also Moving Away From Republicans

Socialism among Democrats, Hispanic voters
Hispanic Voters Lean Democratic in November – Photo: Shutterstock

The poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights between August 12 and 16 among 2,533 registered voters and has a margin of error of two percentage points.

Among independents, 40% would support a Democratic candidate and 33% would choose a Republican, while 20% remain undecided.

  • The data: Among so-called pure independents, who do not lean toward either major party, more than half remain undecided.

That group could be especially important in competitive districts, where small margins may ultimately determine who wins a seat in Congress.

Hispanic Voters and Lower-Income Households Favor Democrats

The result among Hispanic voters’ Democrats support stands out: 59% said they would vote for a Democratic candidate, according to The Center Square.

The Democratic advantage also appears among Americans earning less than $50,000 a year: 50% would choose the Democratic candidate and 37% the Republican.

  • By the numbers: Voters ages 18 to 29 favor Democrats 54% to 36%, while women favor them 52% to 35%.

Mike Noble, founder of Noble Predictive Insights, linked the generational differences seen in the poll to voters’ economic concerns.

The survey shows those political preferences alongside concerns about the cost of living, but the results do not prove that the economy is the direct cause of voting behavior.

Other Polls Also Show a Democratic Advantage

The Center Square survey is not an isolated result. Other recent national polls have also placed Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot.

Emerson College Polling found an August advantage of 51% to 43% among likely voters. A Cygnal poll showed Democrats leading 49% to 42%.

The Silver Bulletin average updated on August 25 placed the Democratic advantage at 6.6 points, virtually unchanged from the beginning of the month.

  • The limitation: A generic ballot asks voters which party they would choose without presenting specific candidates. It does not automatically predict the outcome of every House or Senate race.

For that reason, the data provide a national snapshot of the current political environment, but they do not guarantee which party will control Congress in 2027.

Campaigns, candidates in each state and district, voter turnout and those who remain undecided could still change the landscape before the November elections.

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SOURCE: The Center Square