Florida Counties That Could Reveal Where the State Is Heading in November

Miami-Dade, Osceola, Orange, Broward, Palm Beach, and Hillsborough will show whether the Republican advance of 2024 continues or if Democrats regain ground.

Florida will head into the November elections with a clear Republican advantage, but six large counties will help measure whether the political shift to the right continues.

The contest between Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly will be a state test after Donald Trump’s victory in 2024.

Why it matters: More than asking if Florida is once again a swing state, the results will allow us to identify if competitive zones reappear within a state where Republicans maintain an advantage.

Republicans Arrive with an Advantage in November

The most recent data from the Florida Division of Elections show 5,607,836 registered Republicans versus 4,066,503 Democrats as of July 31, 2026. That difference exceeds 1.5 million voters.

The change is considerable compared to 2020, when Democrats still had a small state registration advantage. Official data show that this relationship has been reversed over the past few years.

• In numbers: In 2024, Trump won Florida with 56.1% versus 43% for Kamala Harris.

Therefore, a Democratic victory in some counties would not be enough to claim that Florida is once again competitive. The key will be to observe how much the margins change compared to 2024.

Miami-Dade and Osceola Will Measure the Republican Advance

Miami-Dade will likely be one of the most closely watched barometers.

Trump obtained 605,590 votes there in 2024 versus 480,355 for Harris, becoming the first Republican presidential candidate to win the county since 1988.

Osceola also sent an important signal.

Trump got 86,713 votes versus 84,205 for Harris, a much smaller difference, but enough to place the county on the Republican side.

• The test: If Donalds maintains those results, it would reinforce the trend observed in 2024. If Jolly reduces the differences or regains ground, it would show that the Republican advance is not uniform.

Orange and Broward Remain Democratic Strongholds

Orange and Broward remained blue in 2024.

Harris won Orange by about 82,500 votes and Broward by approximately 148,000, according to official results.

Now the question will be whether Jolly can expand those advantages to compensate for the Republican areas of the state.

• The fact: The 2026 registration still shows more Democrats than Republicans in both Orange and Broward.

A reduction in the Democratic margin, on the other hand, would give another signal that the movement to the right continues to reach large urban areas.

Palm Beach and Tampa Can Show Where the Competition Is

Palm Beach and Hillsborough, where Tampa is located, were much closer in 2024.

Harris won Palm Beach by just 5,676 votes, while Trump won Hillsborough by 20,562.

• What’s next: On November 3, Donalds and Jolly will offer a clearer comparison with 2024.

More than declaring ahead of time that Florida is returning as a swing state, these counties will allow us to measure where the Republican advance is maintained and where Democrats manage to regain space.

November will show whether the Republican dominance in Florida continues to grow or if Democrats find spaces to regain ground.

Miami-Dade, Osceola, Orange, Broward, Palm Beach, and Hillsborough will be key to understanding this movement, but even better Democratic performance in some of them will not be enough to declare that Florida is once again a swing state.

The true measure will be in how much the margins change compared to 2024 and whether Donalds manages to maintain the coalition that led Trump to a wide state victory.

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SOURCE: Axios / El Pais / Florida Division of Elections