Marquette and Economist/YouGov 2026 midterm election polls show double-digit Democratic leads among likely voters, as independents also lean toward Democratic candidates.

Two recent national polls agree on a Democratic lead among likely voters: 54%-41% in Marquette and 51%-39% in Economist/YouGov.

  • Why it matters: Independents appear to be an important part of that difference, while inflation and the cost of living remain among Americans’ top concerns.

Independents Favor Democrats in 2026 Midterm Election Polls

elections, votes, voters, cost, life, high, 2026 Midterm Election Polls Show Democrats Leading as Cost of Living Tops Voter Concerns
2026 Midterm Election Polls Show Democrats Leading as Cost of Living Tops Voter Concerns – PHOTO: Referential image recreated with AI

Economist/YouGov found a particularly wide difference among independent likely voters: 54% support Democratic candidates and 27% support Republican candidates.

Party identification remains strong. About 90% of Democrats and Republicans who are likely to vote support their party’s candidate.

  • The data: Among all 2026 elections likely voters, Economist/YouGov records 51% for Democratic candidates versus 39% for Republicans.

Marquette presents an important nuance among independent registered voters who do not lean toward either party.

Within that group, 41% favor the Democratic candidate and 10% the Republican, while another 40% choose neither.

  • The limit: The difference favors Democrats among those who express a preference, but a considerable share of those independents remains undecided.

Women and Young Voters Account for Part of the Difference

Economist/YouGov also finds significant differences among likely voters when the results are broken down by age and gender.

Women favor Democratic candidates 56%-35%, while men are evenly divided at 45%-45%.

  • Among young people: Voters under 30 record a 68%-27% difference in favor of Democratic candidates.

Among voters ages 30 to 44, the result is 51%-34%. Among those ages 45 to 64, another tie appears at 45%-45%.

Democratic candidates also have a 19-point lead among likely voters with a college degree, according to Economist/YouGov.

Cost of Living Tops Voter Concerns

The electoral landscape coincides with an economic concern that stands out above the other issues measured by Marquette.

Thirty-seven percent point to inflation and the cost of living as the most important issue before the November elections, far above other options.

  • Priorities: The economy ranks second at 16%, followed by the war between Iran, Israel, and the United States at 10%.

Medicare and Social Security appear at 9%, while healthcare represents 7% among the most important issues.

The prominence of the cost of living helps explain the context in which voters are evaluating the elections, although the survey does not demonstrate that this concern alone explains their party preference.

Marquette Poll Shows Wider Democratic Lead Since July

Marquette’s poll shows that the difference among likely voters increased over the last two months.

In July, Democratic candidates recorded 51% versus 45% for Republicans, a six-point difference.

In September, the result shifted to 54%-41%, widening the gap to 13 points.

  • The sample: Marquette interviewed 1,023 adults between September 2 and 9. Among 581 likely voters, the margin of error was ±4.3 points.

These figures are national snapshots of the moment, not forecasts of which party will control Congress.

House elections are decided district by district.

Therefore, a difference in the national vote does not automatically determine how many seats each party will win in the November elections.

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SOURCE: Fox news 6 / YouGov